Trading the News: Economic Calendar, NFP and Rate Decisions
Which releases actually move the market, what Actual, Forecast and Previous mean, why price sometimes moves against the data, and how to avoid the spread blow-out.
The news itself means nothing. What matters is the gap between what was released and what the market expected.
The three numbers in a calendar
- Previous — the prior reading.
- Forecast — the analyst consensus, already priced in.
- Actual — the released figure.
Movement comes from the gap between Actual and Forecast. If inflation lands exactly on forecast, there is barely a reaction however high the number.
What actually moves markets
First tier. Rate decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England with their press conferences. US CPI. Non-farm payrolls on the first Friday of the month.
Second tier. PMIs, retail sales, GDP, meeting minutes.
Everything else typically produces movement within ordinary noise.
The mechanics of the first seconds
At the moment of release spreads widen three- to tenfold and depth of book collapses. Orders fill with tens of pips of slippage and stops trigger far beyond their level. This is not the broker acting against you — the same thing is visible in an exchange order book.
The practical conclusion: entering exactly at the release is not trading, it is a lottery with poor terms.
Two workable approaches
Wait for settlement. Give the market 15–30 minutes, let the spread normalise and a first structure form, then trade that.
Do not trade it at all. Close positions 10–15 minutes before and return afterwards. For intraday strategies targeting 20–40 pips this is often the most profitable choice.
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Frequently asked questions
Which releases matter most?
Fed and ECB rate decisions, US CPI inflation, the US non-farm payrolls report, and central bank press conferences. Everything else moves markets considerably less.
Why did price move against good data?
Markets trade the deviation from expectations and the resulting shift in rate expectations, not the number itself. A good figure against even better expectations reads as a disappointment.
Can I place pending orders before a release?
Technically yes, but fills across a gap are unpredictable, spreads multiply, and some brokers widen the minimum order distance ahead of major releases.
- Min. deposit
- $100
- Spread
- from 1.2 pips
- Commission
- $3.5 per lot per side
72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs
- Min. deposit
- $50
- Spread
- from 1.0 pip (Standard STP)
- Commission
- $3 per lot per side (Raw ECN)
CFDs are complex instruments with a high risk of losing money